Remind me to stay away from run line favorites. Anyways, here’s a couple plays as we say an unofficial goodbye to summer. 

Season record 3-2-1 .65 Units Brewers at Blue Jays Pick Blue Jays ML -130 BetRivers

Brewers at Blue Jays

Pick: Blue Jays ML -130 (BetRivers)

Is this a preview of World Series Game 1? Shane Bieber vs. Freddy Peralta — let’s go.

It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from Bieber. This is just his second MLB start since tearing his UCL and missing 14 months after Tommy John surgery. But so far, so good. In 29 minor-league rehab innings, he posted a 34.8% strikeout rate against just a 2.8% walk rate. Then in his first start back, he went six innings in Miami, giving up two hits and one run with nine strikeouts and no walks. His fastball averaged 92.5 mph, right in line with where he’s sat since 2021. Command is usually the issue for pitchers coming off Tommy John, but Bieber looks locked in.

Peralta has been every bit the ace for Milwaukee, posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Opponents are hitting just .195 off him. The issue: walks. He’s running a 9.4% walk rate this year, and it’s ballooned to 13.2% in his seven starts since the All-Star break. He’s worked around it thanks to an 86.6% strand rate, but that’s not sustainable.

The Blue Jays lineup is deep. Seven starters own a wRC+ between 108 (Nathan Lukes) and 158 (George Springer). Since the All-Star break, Toronto leads MLB in all three slash categories (.292/.357/.496). They should scratch out enough runs to support Bieber, especially against a Brewers team that just lost closer Trevor Megill.

Reds at Cardinals

Pick: Cardinals +110 (ESPN BET)

It’s a battle of struggling NL Central squads. This one is simple: the Reds can’t hit lefties.

Since the All-Star break, Cincinnati is slashing an ugly .228/.286/.308 against southpaws. On the season, they’re 11-19-11 with a -16.7% ROI in the first five innings against left-handed starters. The Reds added Miguel Andújar at the deadline, and he’s been productive (.339 AVG, 175 wRC+), but one bat won’t fix the problem.

They’ll face Matthew Liberatore today, a lefty with underwhelming peripherals (4.39 SIERA, 4.58 xERA). On the other side, St. Louis lines up Zack Littell, his right-handed mirror image (4.39 SIERA, 4.61 xERA). At plus money, the Cardinals are worth the play.