{"id":150,"date":"2024-06-28T09:31:34","date_gmt":"2024-06-28T09:31:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=150"},"modified":"2024-06-28T11:44:04","modified_gmt":"2024-06-28T11:44:04","slug":"amid-election-nerves-french-city-traders-rush-to-secure-funding-as-they-foresee-the-worst-blow-to-bonds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=150","title":{"rendered":"Amid election nerves French city traders rush to secure funding as they foresee the worst blow to bonds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The worst bond rout since the sovereign debt crisis. Companies rushing to\u00a0lock in funding<\/a>\u00a0before a potential capital drought. An almost $200 billion hit to stocks.<\/p>\n

\n

French President Emmanuel Macron\u2019s decision earlier this month to meet the far-right\u2019s gains across Europe with a\u00a0snap poll<\/a>\u00a0at home has\u00a0upended<\/a>\u00a0markets across the region, triggering a sharp repricing that\u2019s put billions of euros in flux.<\/p>\n

On Sunday, investors will find out if the selloff has room to run.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The stakes are high. France\u2019s fiscal probity is in doubt with investors shorting the nation\u2019s bonds even before Macron\u2019s surprise decision, and the region\u2019s allure as a stable and relatively volatility-free alternative to US markets has taken a blow.<\/p>\n

David Zahn, head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton, summed it up: The French spread over German bonds could \u201ceasily\u201d blow through 100 basis points from around 80 now \u2014 unthinkable less than a month ago.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is nothing to win in this market,\u201d said Stephane Deo, a senior portfolio manager at Eleva Capital SAS, who has cut all his fund\u2019s exposure to France.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Traders are going into the parliamentary election at the weekend holding the most futures contracts on French bonds in at least a year, a sign they\u2019re betting yields will go higher. Stock pickers are hedging losses with the most put options tied to Europe\u2019s main blue-chip benchmark in two years. And currency traders are piling into derivatives that shield them from a drop in the euro at the fastest pace in 15 months.<\/p>\n

The main fear for markets of all stripes is that the new French government drives the country deeper into debt. France\u2019s deficit already exceeds what\u2019s allowed under European Union rules and a strong showing by either the right or the left would be viewed as increasing the chances that the government loosens the purse strings further.\u00a0<\/p>\n

S&P Global Ratings\u00a0downgraded<\/a>\u00a0the country\u2019s credit score at the end of May and the International Monetary Fund\u00a0predicts<\/a>\u00a0its deficit will remain well above the EU\u2019s 3% limit for years to come.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pain for bonds can translate into pain for banks if they\u2019re eventually forced to swoop in and buy up the notes should foreigners head for the exits. With French lenders already leading losses among euro-area banks in June, at that point the contagion could spiral beyond France\u2019s borders, driving up borrowing costs in the EU\u2019s weaker members.<\/p>\n

Memories of the region\u2019s debt crisis are on investors\u2019\u00a0minds<\/a>, an Allianz Global Investors portfolio manager said recently, and ripples from France could once more bring the entire euro project into question.<\/p>\n

The last time Le Pen\u2019s far-right party came close to clinching power was in the 2017 presidential election, promising voters a referendum on whether the country should leave the euro. While she\u2019s tempered her stance since, her party\u2019s policies have investors on edge.<\/p>\n

\u2018Frexit\u2019 Risk<\/h2>\n

A gauge based on credit default swaps that indicates the likelihood of France leaving the EU has almost doubled since the European elections to near the highest since 2017.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The issue is \u201cwhether people want to go down the path of ruminating about redenomination,\u201d said Erik Weisman, portfolio manager and chief economist at MFS Investment Management. \u201cI think that would be unwarranted almost regardless of the outcome. But the market may have other ideas.\u201d<\/p>\n

Political ructions in France are already casting a shadow over the broader region.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Weakness in French sovereign bonds has spilled over to Italy \u2014 Europe\u2019s original poster child for fiscal profligacy. There, the spread to Germany has widened to the highest since February.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In credit markets, the risk premium French companies pay to borrow compared to their euro-area peers has jumped to the highest since the run-up to the 2017 election. Before the snap vote was called, that cost had been consistently lower.<\/p>\n

And trades in derivative markets that pay out if euro-area bank stocks decline have hit the highest since 2016.<\/p>\n

Banks are seen as vulnerable to concern about a nation\u2019s political future through their holdings of government debt and their exposure to weak economic decisions. While sovereign bonds accounted for just 2.4% of French banks\u2019 total assets as of the first quarter, that number could creep up if lenders step in to buy as foreign investors flee.<\/p>\n

\u2018Existential Issue\u2019<\/h2>\n

\u201cMarket access is an existential issue for banks,\u201d said Gordon Shannon, portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management. \u201cPeriods of market stress curtail the ability to raise fresh capital.\u201d<\/p>\n

To be sure, volatility triggered by elections can dissipate fast, and investors predict Le Pen\u2019s party \u2014 if it does win the most seats \u2014 will tread carefully to boost her chances for the 2027 presidential vote. France\u2019s CAC 40 stock benchmark has done well after most legislative elections in the past 30 years.<\/p>\n

Surveys indicate it\u2019s unlikely any one party will have an absolute majority after the voting, and Former French President Francois Hollande indicated this week that he\u2019d be ready to build a\u00a0new coalition<\/a>\u00a0to govern if elections deliver a hung parliament.<\/p>\n

Karen Ward, chief market strategist for EMEA at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, sees the weakness in French banks as a buying opportunity. The next French government will be mindful of the chaos triggered by unfunded tax cuts proposed by UK prime minister Liz Truss in 2022.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn a couple of months\u2019 time we will not be talking about French politics at all,\u201d she said. \u201cThis is not 2011-2012, none of these more populous parties are advocating leaving the euro. This is about migration, which is a thread we are seeing in politics across the west.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yet the sense of angst is palpable. The spike in political risk has prompted several portfolio managers to abandon the practice of buying European bonds in anticipation of a catch-up with valuations in US debt.<\/p>\n

That chimes with the shift in equity-market sentiment, where uncertainty before Sunday\u2019s vote has derailed the bull case for Europe, pushing investors to trim exposure and rebalance their positioning toward US assets.\u00a0<\/p>\n

And rates traders are expecting the nation\u2019s borrowing costs to remain high for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe French spread won\u2019t go back to its pre-election level anytime soon,\u201d said Sonia Renoult, a rates strategist at ABN Amro. \u201cThe question is how quickly it pulls back and whether the bond market or institutions need to force it to do so.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The worst bond rout since the sovereign debt crisis. Companies rushing to\u00a0lock in funding\u00a0before a potential capital drought. An almost $200 billion hit to stocks. French President Emmanuel Macron\u2019s decision…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":151,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[6],"tags":[216,217,209,31,214,208,213,207,211,212,210,215],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nAmid election nerves French city traders rush to secure funding as they foresee the worst blow to bonds - Frisco Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u201cThere is nothing to win in this market.\u201d\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=150\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Amid election nerves French city traders rush to secure funding as they foresee the worst blow to bonds - 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