{"id":282,"date":"2024-07-03T19:35:32","date_gmt":"2024-07-03T19:35:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=282"},"modified":"2024-07-03T19:35:32","modified_gmt":"2024-07-03T19:35:32","slug":"opinion-theres-a-name-for-the-trap-joe-biden-faces","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=282","title":{"rendered":"Opinion | There\u2019s a Name for the Trap Joe Biden Faces"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">After his shockingly poor performance in last week\u2019s debate, President Biden is facing mounting pressure to drop out of the 2024 election. Influential voices in his own party have called for him to step aside. Polls indicate that many voters hope he will. Yet so far he is staying the course.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">There\u2019s a formal name for this trap: <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/how-to-rethink-a-bad-decision\/id1346314086?i=1000514966580\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">escalation of commitment to a losing course of action<\/a>. In the face of impending failure, extensive evidence <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/journals.aom.org\/doi\/abs\/10.5465\/amj.2010.0696\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">shows<\/a> that instead of rethinking our plans, we often double down on our decisions. It feels better to be a fighter than a quitter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">One of the tragedies of the human condition is that we use our big brains not to make rational decisions, but rather to rationalize the decisions we\u2019ve already made. We stick around too long in dead-end jobs. We stay in unhappy marriages even after friends have counseled us to leave. We stand by candidates even after they violate our principles.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Some of the worst leadership decisions of our time can be traced to escalation of commitment. Many people lost their lives because American presidents pursued a futile war in Vietnam \u2014 and continued searching for weapons of mass destruction that weren\u2019t in Iraq. As George Ball warned in a 1965 letter to President Lyndon Johnson: \u201cOnce we suffer large casualties, we will have started a well-nigh irreversible process. Our involvement will be so great that we cannot \u2014 without national humiliation \u2014 stop short of achieving our complete objectives. Of the two possibilities I think humiliation will be more likely.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">It happens in business, too: Blockbuster went bust because instead of buying Netflix, leaders escalated their commitment to renting physical videos. Kodak <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/agenda\/2016\/06\/leading-innovation-through-the-chicanes\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">made the same mistake<\/a> by doubling down on selling film instead of pivoting to digital cameras.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Escalation of commitment helps to explain why leaders are often so reluctant to loosen their grip on power. Losing a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/journals.aom.org\/doi\/abs\/10.5465\/amj.2011.0909\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">high-status position<\/a> can make them feel as if they\u2019re losing their place in the world. It leaves them with bruised egos and wounded pride.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Of course, we can\u2019t know for sure which decisions will turn out to be good. But decades of <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.246.4927.216\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">research led<\/a> by the organizational psychologist Barry Staw have identified a few conditions that make people especially likely to persist on ill-fated paths. <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/journals.aom.org\/doi\/abs\/10.5465\/amj.2010.0696\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Escalation is likely<\/a> when people are directly responsible for and publicly attached to a decision, when it has been a long journey and the end is in sight, and when they have reasons to be confident that they can succeed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">It\u2019s striking that President Biden\u2019s current situation checks all those boxes. He announced his re-election bid to the world back in April 2023. He\u2019s poured 14 months of energy into his campaign and has only four more to go. And he\u2019s beaten the odds before: Many voters told pollsters he was too old before the 2020 election, and in hindsight it\u2019s unlikely that any other Democratic candidate would have won.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">So what should the president be doing to navigate this enormously consequential decision? So far, we know that he gathered his family and top aides. (<a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/30\/us\/politics\/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html\" title=\"\">According to reports<\/a>, they all encouraged him to stay in the race.) That\u2019s a natural enough impulse, but it doesn\u2019t <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/full\/10.1177\/0001839211429102\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">necessarily<\/a> <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/full\/10.1177\/0001839211429102\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">help<\/a>, since the people closest to a leader are precisely the ones who are most susceptible to confirmation bias. They\u2019re too personally invested in his success and too likely to dismiss warning signs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">What Mr. Biden needs is not a support network but a challenge network \u2014 people who have the will to put the country\u2019s interests ahead of his and the skill to coldly assess his chances. That\u2019s a task for someone who is not affiliated with the campaign in any way, someone whose judgment has proved to be impeccable and most of all, impartial, and someone who is not worried about the possible cost to their own career. (An ideal candidate for this role might be <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/goodjudgment.com\/about\/our-team\/superforecaster-profiles\/jean-pierre-beugoms\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">professional forecaster<\/a>, since forecasters \u2014 unlike pollsters, who tell us what voters think today \u2014 excel at anticipating how views are likely to change tomorrow.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">According to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/jaketapper\/status\/1808155854484521420\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">news reports<\/a>, insiders worry that pressuring Mr. Biden to back out will backfire. That\u2019s a valid concern. Pressure can <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/psycnet.apa.org\/record\/2017-56961-001\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">make<\/a> people defensive. A more promising approach might start with praising his flexibility, which research shows can make people more willing to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0749597808000034\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">rethink<\/a> bad decisions. Second, ask what he sees as the pros and cons of staying in the race. The best way to open a stubborn mind isn\u2019t to argue; it\u2019s to listen. When people feel heard, they <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/psycnet.apa.org\/record\/2024-23070-001\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">become<\/a> less defensive and more reflective. Third, ask him what would shift his thinking.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cPresident Biden, I admire your ability to build bridges across the aisle. That shows a willingness to have tough conversations, and you certainly have a tough choice in front of you. What advice would you give to others facing this dilemma? You obviously have a long list of reasons to stay in the race \u2014 what would be your top three reasons to walk away? What information would convince you that it would be best not to run?\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">When I\u2019ve had discussions like this with leaders in government and business, my biggest struggle has been getting them to acknowledge that failure is a real possibility. They\u2019ve asked me: What if I let go and wish I hadn\u2019t? Along with the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/journals.aom.org\/doi\/abs\/10.5465\/amj.2010.0696\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">regret<\/a> of dropping out, we also need to weigh the regret of staying in.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For Mr. Biden, that might mean asking him to imagine that it\u2019s January 2025 and he lost the election in a landslide. President Trump is announcing mass deportations, expanding executive power and working to repeal the 22nd Amendment so he can serve a third term.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">This exercise could <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/profile\/Gary-Klein-3\/publication\/266485127_Evaluating_the_Effectiveness_of_the_PreMortem_Technique_on_Plan_Confidence\/links\/565512f708ae1ef929770299\/Evaluating-the-Effectiveness-of-the-PreMortem-Technique-on-Plan-Confidence.pdf\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">help<\/a> Mr. Biden see for himself how losing could rewrite his legacy. He would go down in history as a man who couldn\u2019t see his own decline until it was too late.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">I hope some dedicated group \u2014 people who deserve Mr. Biden\u2019s trust but aren\u2019t members of his team or his family \u2014 can help him think these questions through. And I hope he has the humility and integrity to take them seriously, no matter how uncomfortable it might be. In a rally last week, he told the crowd, \u201cI know how to tell the truth!\u201d The more vital question is whether he knows how to hear the truth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Refusing to quit is not always a heroic act of resilience. It\u2019s often stubborn rigidity. President Biden, service is not only about stepping up to lead. It\u2019s also about having the courage to step aside.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After his shockingly poor performance in last week\u2019s debate, President Biden is facing mounting pressure to drop out of the 2024 election. Influential voices in his own party have called&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":283,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[7],"tags":[439,440,326,57,438],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Opinion | There\u2019s a Name for the Trap Joe Biden Faces - Frisco Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=282\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Opinion | There\u2019s a Name for the Trap Joe Biden Faces - Frisco Times\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"After his shockingly poor performance in last week\u2019s debate, President Biden is facing mounting pressure to drop out of the 2024 election. 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