{"id":4158,"date":"2025-04-14T11:13:48","date_gmt":"2025-04-14T11:13:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=4158"},"modified":"2025-04-14T14:44:36","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T14:44:36","slug":"ray-dalio-says-trumps-ever-changing-tariff-policy-could-contribute-to-a-problem-worse-than-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=4158","title":{"rendered":"Ray Dalio says Trump\u2019s ever-changing tariff policy could contribute to a problem \u2018worse than recession\u2019\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":" \r\n<br><br>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Ray Dalio warns that President Trump&#8217;s tariff policies, combined with rising debt and global tensions, could lead to a breakdown of the U.S. &#8220;monetary order,&#8221;<\/strong> causing disruptions far more severe than a typical recession. He compares current conditions to those of the 1930s, citing risks of internal political conflict, international power shifts, and economic instability that could escalate into a global crisis if poorly managed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>President Trump\u2019s shifting tariff policy is part of a broader set of economic and geopolitical pressures that could trigger a crisis \u201cworse than a recession,\u201d according to Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dalio, whose net worth is estimated at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/billionaires\/profiles\/raymond-t-dalio\/\">$16 billion<\/a>, said in an interview with NBC\u2019s <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Topa3LKgolw&amp;ab_channel=NBCNews\">Meet the Press<\/a><\/em> that the foundation of the American economy\u2014the \u201cmonetary order\u201d\u2014is under threat. He warned that the breakdown of this system could have far deeper consequences for consumers and businesses than a standard economic contraction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dalio said history is shaped by five major forces: monetary cycles like credit and debt; internal political conflict; shifting global power dynamics; technological change; and natural disasters such as pandemics. In his view, all five are currently in play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He sees the Trump administration\u2019s tariff agenda\u2014marked by sudden announcements, reversals, and exceptions\u2014as symptomatic of policymakers&#8217; struggle to manage these broader shifts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Initial tariffs targeting China were followed by delayed actions against Mexico and Canada, aimed at curbing fentanyl traffic and slowing immigration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additional duties on industries such as autos and steel were unveiled as part of a campaign dubbed Liberation Day, with blanket 10% tariffs introduced on April 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Higher rates were imposed on select trading partners like the EU, Japan, and India, though they were granted a 90-day delay. China, which imposed retaliatory tariffs, was excluded from the pause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On April 5, the White House moved to exempt smartphones and computers imported from China, following concerns over the ballooning U.S. trade deficit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A history lesson with stark warnings for the future<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Dalio criticized the chaotic rollout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He said: &#8220;What was put there [in the April 2 tariff announcement] was like throwing rocks into the production system and those impacts would be enormous in terms of the efficiency of the whole world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Right now, we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession. I&#8217;m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn&#8217;t handled well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;A recession is two negative quarters of GDO and whether it goes there? We always have those things. We have something that&#8217;s much more profound, we have a breaking down of the monetary order\u2014we are going to change the monetary order because we cannot send the amounts of money.&#8221; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 75-year-old economic expert may be referring to the government debt issue, which he has highlighted before. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many\u2014including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Fed chairman Jerome Powell\u2014fear that America may continue to amass public debt to the point it cannot repay it, prompting a situation where foreign nations hike their rates for Uncle Sam or simply refuse to buy its debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Dalio added tariffs and changes to the domestic and world order compound the government debt issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Such times are very much like the 1930s,&#8221; he continued. &#8220;I&#8217;ve studied history, and history repeats over and over again. If you take tariffs, if you take debt, if you take the rising power challenging the existing power&#8230; Those changes in the orders\u2014the systems are very, very disruptive. How that&#8217;s handled could produce something that&#8217;s much wore than a recession or it can be handled well.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Worst-case scenario<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Dalio\u2019s worst-case scenario includes a collapse in the value of money, internal political conflict \u201cnot like the democracy we know,\u201d and global tensions that could escalate into military conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThese breakdowns have occurred before,\u201d he said. \u201cThe existing monetary and geopolitical order began in 1945. These systems go in cycles, and I worry about the breakdown\u2014particularly because it doesn\u2019t have to happen.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>This story was originally featured on Fortune.com<\/p>\r\n<br>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President Trump\u2019s shifting tariff policy is part of a broader set of economic and geopolitical pressures that could trigger a crisis \u201cworse than a recession,\u201d according to Bridgewater Associates founder&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":312,"featured_media":4159,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[6],"tags":[5369,665,2797,2026,3353,664,2846,874,750,5285],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.5 - 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