{"id":447,"date":"2024-07-08T18:28:50","date_gmt":"2024-07-08T18:28:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=447"},"modified":"2024-07-08T18:28:50","modified_gmt":"2024-07-08T18:28:50","slug":"after-frances-election-shock-comes-the-real-power-struggle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=447","title":{"rendered":"After France\u2019s election shock comes the real power struggle"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<figure class=\"bbc-1qn0xuy\">\n<div class=\"bbc-j1srjl\" style=\"padding-bottom:100%\"><amp-img class=\"bbc-image\" layout=\"responsive\" alt=\"A hand holds a placard that says 'Revolution'\" src=\"https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/ace\/ws\/640\/cpsprodpb\/bc8b\/live\/235881b0-3d47-11ef-96a8-e710c6bfc866.png.webp\" width=\"2500\" height=\"2500\" fallback=\"\" attribution=\"Getty Images\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/ace\/ws\/240\/cpsprodpb\/bc8b\/live\/235881b0-3d47-11ef-96a8-e710c6bfc866.png.webp 240w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/ace\/ws\/320\/cpsprodpb\/bc8b\/live\/235881b0-3d47-11ef-96a8-e710c6bfc866.png.webp 320w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/ace\/ws\/480\/cpsprodpb\/bc8b\/live\/235881b0-3d47-11ef-96a8-e710c6bfc866.png.webp 480w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/ace\/ws\/624\/cpsprodpb\/bc8b\/live\/235881b0-3d47-11ef-96a8-e710c6bfc866.png.webp 624w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/ace\/ws\/800\/cpsprodpb\/bc8b\/live\/235881b0-3d47-11ef-96a8-e710c6bfc866.png.webp 800w\" data-hero=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"bbc-by8ykd\" role=\"text\"><span class=\"bbc-m04vo2\">Image source, <\/span>Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p><strong class=\"bbc-j1n2ld e1p3vdyi0\">After France&#8217;s election shock comes the real power struggle<\/strong><\/p>\n<section role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"article-byline\" class=\"bbc-1vjaf6b\"><strong id=\"article-byline\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"bbc-m04vo2\">Article information<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul role=\"list\" class=\"bbc-1rvtlej\">\n<li class=\"bbc-gxeafv\">\n<div class=\"bbc-2fjy3x\" style=\"padding-bottom:100%;overflow:hidden\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/ace\/ws\/160\/cpsprodpb\/401e\/live\/9688d9c0-3d4a-11ef-9e1c-3b4a473456a6.png.webp\" alt=\"\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1 \/ 1\" class=\"bbc-139onq\"\/><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li><span role=\"text\"><span class=\"bbc-m04vo2\">Author, <\/span><span class=\"bbc-1ypcc2\">Andrew Harding<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span role=\"text\"><span class=\"bbc-m04vo2\">Role, <!-- --> <\/span><span class=\"bbc-1y5sx98\">Paris correspondent <\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span role=\"text\" class=\"bbc-xvbtix\"><span class=\"bbc-1uxn1st\">Reporting from <!-- --> <\/span><span class=\"bbc-176ddip\">Paris<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"bbc-v8pmqw\">\n<p><time datetime=\"2024-07-08\" class=\"bbc-1dafq0j e1mklfmt0\">8 July 2024<\/time><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">The drama and vitriol of France\u2019s sudden summer election is over. Now comes the drama and vitriol of stage two &#8211; and what could be a much longer and equally agitated struggle to build a functional coalition out of the inconclusive results of Saturday\u2019s vote.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">\u201cA lot of things are unclear. We know who lost but we don\u2019t know who won. Can we learn the art of compromise which is so unusual for us? Nobody knows &#8211; the signs are not necessarily good,\u201d Sylvie Kauffmann, a newspaper columnist for Le Monde, told me.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">The risks of deadlock \u2013 for France itself, for its constitutional order, for European stability, and even for Ukraine\u2019s war against Russian aggression \u2013 are serious.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><h2 id=\"Guillotines-at-dawn\" tabindex=\"-1\" class=\"bbc-kf21ty eglt09e0\">Guillotines at dawn?<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">But it\u2019s worth remembering that this country is no stranger to coping with political upheavals. Revolutions aside, there was the chaos and revolts that followed World War Two and eventually upended France\u2019s constitutional order, leading to the current system of government, known as the Fifth Republic.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">And more recently there were the challenges of \u201ccohabitation\u201d, when presidents and prime ministers from rival parties were obliged to share power.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">As politicians now sidle away for their summer holidays, or refocus their attention on the imminent Paris Olympics, it seems more than likely that the political temperature in France will subside by a degree or two, at least briefly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">But the cohabitation battles of the 1980s and 1990s look like gentlemanly squabbles over a wine menu compared with the furious, guillotines-at-dawn brawls that many observers expect to preoccupy France\u2019s National Assembly for weeks, or even months, to come.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">Some wonder if the French electorate \u2013 by saddling parliament with three minority blocks of almost equal size \u2013 has rendered the country \u201cungovernable,\u201d or whether it is simply faced with the sort of deal-making challenge that so many other European nations wrestle with almost as a matter of course.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><h2 id=\"Who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister\" tabindex=\"-1\" class=\"bbc-kf21ty eglt09e0\">Who will be the next prime minister?<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">Having emerged, to almost universal surprise, with the most seats at this parliamentary election, France\u2019s left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NPF) has now earned the right to pick \u2013 or try to pick &#8211; the next prime minister and to implement its agenda.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">But with no working majority, any viable candidate will need to win support from other, more centrist parties. Who could possibly fit that bill?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">The NPF was quick to unite around a common platform ahead of the elections. But it contains deep political rifts \u2013 stretching as it does from anti-capitalists and communists to mainstream social democrats. The coalition is also home to some divisive figures, like the far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon, who could quickly trigger the coalition\u2019s collapse over the factionalism that has often marked the left of French politics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">Some wonder if the Green Party leader, Marine Tondelier, might be a good fit. Her relatively low profile could be an asset in a political landscape scarred by years of deeply personal, and sometimes vitriolic, feuding.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><h2 id=\"Macronism-is-dead\" tabindex=\"-1\" class=\"bbc-kf21ty eglt09e0\">&#8216;Macronism is dead&#8217;<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">In the midst of this, President Emmanuel Macron remains on his throne, scarred by self-inflicted political wounds, but arguably a little stronger than he was a few days ago.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">His centrist grouping lost almost a third of its seats in the National Assembly as a result of his entirely unnecessary electoral gamble to dissolve parliament and call elections. But a disciplined frenzy of deal-making with the NPF helped it cling onto many more seats in the second round than the pollsters predicted.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">Could deadlock in parliament enable Mr Macron to float above the chaos and strengthen his position? Even his allies seem sceptical, convinced he is now trapped in a \u201cstranglehold\u201d between the extremes he once promised to banish from French political life.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">\u201cToday, the President of the Republic will maintain a small margin of manoeuvre to act. But he will no longer be the political programmatic driving force in the country. From this point of view, after seven years, Macronism is dead,\u201d Gilles Legendre, a disillusioned former MP who used to lead Macron\u2019s party in the Assembly, told the BBC.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><h2 id=\"What-next-for-National-Rally\" tabindex=\"-1\" class=\"bbc-kf21ty eglt09e0\">What next for National Rally?<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">As for the far-right National Rally (RN), it will no doubt recover quickly from the shock of Sunday night\u2019s results, which prompted sombre silence at the party\u2019s headquarters &#8211; a jarring contrast with the euphoric street celebrations by left-wing voters which swept through parts of Paris that same evening.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">The RN has already sought to reframe its third-place disappointment as the result of cynical deal-making by a \u201cdishonest alliance\u201d of its rivals, rather than evidence of its own shallow pool of credible candidates and its failure to convince enough French voters of the sincerity of its move away from the extreme right.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">The RN will surely try to promote its own agenda \u2013 including a clampdown on immigration and reforms of schools and policing. Its commitment to supporting Ukraine remains unclear, given the party\u2019s recent support for the Kremlin and its occupation of Crimea. The RN must now be hoping that the Assembly is either deadlocked or dominated by an economically profligate far-left agenda that could further threaten France\u2019s already strained budget.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">Months, or even years, of turmoil could then give the party a chance to portray itself as a stable and modernising force, thwarted by left-wing extremists and old elites.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\">That in turn could, potentially, give the RN a good chance of increasing its vote share in any subsequent snap parliamentary election, or \u2013 and this is the real prize \u2013 sweeping its leader Marine Le Pen into the Presidency in 2027.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-19j92fr ebmt73l0\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" class=\"bbc-hhl7in e17g058b0\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/bbcindepth\" class=\"focusIndicatorReducedWidth bbc-n8oauk e1p3sufg0\"><i class=\"bbc-h1y5j7 eih42320\">BBC InDepth<\/i><\/a><i class=\"bbc-h1y5j7 eih42320\"> is the new home on the website and app for the best analysis and expertise from our top journalists. Under a distinctive new brand, we\u2019ll bring you fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions, and deep reporting on the biggest issues to help you make sense of a complex world. And we\u2019ll be showcasing thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. We\u2019re starting small but thinking big, and we want to know what you think &#8211; you can send us your feedback by clicking on the button below.<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<section role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"Get-in-touch\" class=\"bbc-1re88wu\">\n<div class=\"bbc-1q7ho9c\"><strong class=\"bbc-1jgawt3\" id=\"Get-in-touch\">Get in touch<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"bbc-l8i50e\">InDepth is the new home for the best analysis from across BBC News. Tell us what you think.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Image source, Getty Images After France&#8217;s election shock comes the real power struggle Article information Author, Andrew Harding Role, Paris correspondent Reporting from Paris 8 July 2024 The drama and&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":123,"featured_media":448,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[5],"tags":[31,341,755,754,753,756],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.5 - 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