{"id":474,"date":"2024-07-15T17:58:08","date_gmt":"2024-07-15T17:58:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=474"},"modified":"2024-07-15T20:14:06","modified_gmt":"2024-07-15T20:14:06","slug":"prediction-markets-72-chance-of-trump-victory-following-shooting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=474","title":{"rendered":"Prediction markets: 72% chance of Trump victory following shooting"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The attempted assassination attempt on Donald Trump at a Pennsylvania rally on Saturday appears to have boosted his chances of becoming president. According to Polymarket<\/a>, the world\u2019s largest prediction market, the chances of his winning the election have risen from 60% to 72% with the near-miss appearing to boost public support for Trump.<\/p>\n

\n

According to that same market, Biden\u2019s chances have risen slightly, to 18%, while the odds of Vice President Kamala Harris replacing Biden and emerging victorious have declined sharply, from 13% to 5%. Meanwhile, on prediction market PredictIt<\/a>, Trump\u2019s odds have increased to 67%, and Biden\u2019s has fallen to 26%.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

Trump’s election odds just hit 70%.<\/p>\n

Yet another all-time high. pic.twitter.com\/S2GdqIdetL<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Polymarket (@Polymarket) July 14, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

<\/p>\n

What are prediction markets? <\/h2>\n

Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, are markets where traders exchange contracts that pay based on the outcomes of unknown future events<\/a>. The prices generated from these contracts are like a collective prediction among market participants. So, the price equates to the odds. For example, Trump shares are trading at 72 cents, denoting a 72% chance he will win.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

If the better-trader believes that the true odds of Trump winning the election are greater than 72%, they would buy \u201cYes\u201d shares for 72 cents each. If Trump wins, each \u201cYes\u201d share would be worth $1, creating a profit of 28 cents per share. In that outcome, anyone who bought \u201cNo\u201d shares, their investment would become worthless. Traders can buy and sell their shares at any point before the outcome, shifting the price of share, and thus, the odds.<\/p>\n

Of all prediction markets, Polymarket wants to be the transparent and trustless one. The platform is decentralized and built on top of the Ethereum blockchain, and users make bets with stablecoins. In May, the company announced it had raised over $70 million across its Series A and B funding rounds, with Ethereum\u2019s founder Vitalik Buterin among the investors.<\/p>\n

Polls paint a different picture of the election outcome, with FiveThirtyEight<\/a> predicting Trump has only a two point lead over Biden. But research suggests<\/a> that\u00a0prediction markets may be a \u201cbetter forecaster\u201d of political outcomes, on average. That\u2019s because traders combine all available information\u2014news, polls, and expert opinions\u2014and make trades based on that combined knowledge. The economic incentive should mean that \u201cas more savvy traders participate, the market\u2019s price (probability) will change to more accurately reflect the true current odds,\u201d according to Polymarket\u2019s site.<\/p>\n

In light of this, Polymarket is creating markets for users to make a bet on quite literally anything: \u201cYour job is to find markets where you disagree with the current odds, and profit by betting on your beliefs. <\/p>\n

This includes a market for \u201cWho will call for Biden to drop out<\/a>?\u201d with Joe Manchin trading at 62 cents. There are markets for the number of times Elon Musk will tweet in a week<\/a>. Will Taylor Swift get engaged in 2024? The market says there\u2019s a 38% chance<\/a>.\u00a0 Will Satoshi, the author of the Bitcoin whitepaper, have his identity proven? Perhaps unsurprisingly, the traders have predicted the odds of this happening at less than 1%<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trump stocks and crypto are up <\/h2>\n

Further indicator that the shooting could, in the long run, play to Trump\u2019s favor, is the market reaction. For instance, the crypto market has rallied, as Trump has doubled down on his promise to be the \u201ccrypto president\u201d if re-elected. Following the shooting at 6:15pm EST, Bitcoin has risen 6%, breaking $63,000 on Monday morning, for the first time in three weeks, according to CoinGecko data. Likewise, crypto-linked stocks have also been climbing. Shares in Coinbase Global, Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Platforms have risen by 10%, 7% and 6%, respectively.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Likewise, the share price of a Trump-owned company is up. Shares in Trump Media and Technology, the parent company of Truth Social, were up 47% between Friday\u2019s closing price and Monday morning, but have since retreated, now trading at $41.35. Nonetheless, it represents a 32% increase from last week. This has hypothetically added $1.8 billion to his total wealth, according to The Telegraph<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Recommended Newsletter:<\/strong><\/p>\n

CEO Daily provides key context for the news leaders need to know from across the world of business. Every weekday morning, more than 125,000 readers trust CEO Daily for insights about\u2013and from inside\u2013the C-suite. Subscribe Now.<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The attempted assassination attempt on Donald Trump at a Pennsylvania rally on Saturday appears to have boosted his chances of becoming president. According to Polymarket, the world\u2019s largest prediction market,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":131,"featured_media":475,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[6],"tags":[801,800,799,803,30,802],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nPrediction markets: 72% chance of Trump victory following shooting - Frisco Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Following Saturday's shooting, the odds of a Donald Trump victory have been boosted to 72%, according to prediction markets.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=474\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Prediction markets: 72% chance of Trump victory following shooting - 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