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I think this was all provoked, because a member of the administration got his butt kicked at 3:00 a.m. by a group of people in a fairly popular area in a part of D.C. considered, safer than others, right. Can we say \u201cBig Balls\u201d on here? O.K I was waiting for someone to breach that wall. All right, so sadly, is our last roundtable of the summer before we all scooch off to exotic locales. Or at least a little bit of beach reading. How are we all feeling. Other than the bad things happening in the world, I feel pretty good. Yeah there\u2019s a way in my family that we talk about that when someone says, how are you doing. They answer is personally great politically. What I\u2019m going to steal that. I like that personally. Rocking O.K, well, before we vanish this week, we\u2019re going to talk about President Trump\u2019s deployment of the National Guard in my backyard and his taking control of Washington, D.C.\u2018s Metro Police force. Trump claims he\u2019s doing this because of a public safety emergency here in the district, though, in fact, violent crime is at a 30 year low. But I have lived here for more than 30 years. I am well aware of Washington\u2019s long term crime issues. And you know what\u2019s not going to help. Cheap political theater. So there\u2019s a lot to get into here. But first, the requisite time stamp. We\u2019re recording this on Wednesday morning. So all this news is still fresh. People are trying to figure things out. The situation is fluid, so who knows. By the time this reaches your ears, Trump may have indeed saved Washington from what he has called our bloodshed, bedlam and squalor. So let\u2019s get to it. First I want first reactions to this. Jamal kick us off. My first reaction I guess comes in three parts. The first part, as you pointed out, there is no public safety emergency in Washington D.C. Crime is, as you said, at a 30 year low, or at least violent crime is violent. Crime is a 30 year low. But the thing actually is worth emphasizing about that is that most of these troops are deployed to areas surrounding the White House, National Mall Downtown, so on and so forth. But when you actually if you were to make like a heat map of criminal activity in Washington, D.C., you would find that it is not in those places that if you\u2019re going to do this, you would put soldiers in other places. And this gets to I think, a reality about crime that\u2019s important to understand. Most violent crime, especially happens in specific discrete geographic areas among specific individuals, right. It isn\u2019t it is not the case either in D.C. or New York, or wherever that you are particularly likely to be the victim of random violent crime. What is the case is that people in networks where there are people who do violent crime are likely to be, or more likely than not to be, victims of violent crime. And so when you begin to actually understand the social geography of crime as well as the physical geography of crime, all this makes even less sense as a measure. Second part I think this is a sign of the president\u2019s weakness. I think that a president who is capable of doing anything like ordinary negotiation, compromise, deliberation would not be leaning on this or leaning on emergency powers in general. But the third thing is that the fact that the president, I think is actually quite weak in a lot of ways should not diminish the fact that this is quite dangerous and that he has announced his intention to do this kind of thing in other cities, which is, I think, a pretty profound violation of basic ideas about power in the United States that go back to even before the founding. David, is this even legal? Oh yeah. That\u2019s a great question. And the answer is probably we\u2019ll see. So probably part is that, look, the president has more authority over the National Guard in the Washington D.C. than anywhere else, more inherent automatic authority. The guard is under his direct control, whereas in the United States, the guard is under the control of the governors unless the guard is federalized here, that\u2019s don\u2019t have to really go through that step. Also, there\u2019s been a long standing D.O.J. position that the guard can be used more for law enforcement purposes in D.C. than it can say in other places without violating the posse comitatus act, which is this post-reconstruction law prohibiting the use of federal troops for law enforcement. However, a lot of these things are just theories. A lot of this is untested because presidents have historically been really reluctant to call out the troops. Now, we\u2019ve seen him do this at the border. We\u2019ve seen him do this in Los Angeles. And the legal authorities for doing all of this are in many cases pretty ambiguous. So the concepts are not fully tested in court. But if he can do it anywhere in America, he can do it in D.C. So I think the legal attack on this is probably going to fail. More interesting question also is the federalization putting under federal control the D.C. police department. Again, D.C. is not a normal city. This is one that is, there\u2019s a home rule act. But ultimately, ultimately, Congress is responsible for D.C. and so there\u2019s much more leeway and flexibility in taking over and taking control of this local police department. But that\u2019s not supposed to happen after 30 days. There has to be congressional authorization. Now, of course, Jamelle and Michelle, this Congress will absolutely stand up to this president. No, of course not. So how much will that really matter in the real world. So what we\u2019re dealing with here is a very carefully chosen city for this intervention. Can I just add real quick in terms of the D.C. being carefully chosen, it\u2019s also a city for which the president\u2019s reliance on tropes about crime and dystopian crime and all of these things, I think is not, I wouldn\u2019t say more effective, but there might be more willing audience for it. For the simple reason that D.C. has been known for a long time as being a majority Black city. It\u2019s not quite majority Black anymore. I think it\u2019s like just under half, but it has this identity. And that identity, I think, is very much a part of the president\u2019s demonization of D.C., demonization of D.C. as kind of a John Carpenter-esque hellscape, demonization of the residents of D.C. as essentially incapable of self-government. Like it plugs into long standing tropes about the ability of Black Americans to exist in mainstream society. To put it in the most sterile way I possibly can. Yeah I mean, nothing melts Trump\u2019s butter quite like the chance to militarize things, but he is hardly the first Republican to play politics with the city. I mean, the district has been a favorite target for years. Nixon liked to hate on D.C. And I do think you\u2019re right about. And I like the way you put it, the most sterile way you can put it. But there\u2019s also just his tendency to demonize all things Washington. I think at this point, you can look at how people responded to tens of thousands of federal government employees having their jobs threatened or taken away. Plenty of people were like, oh, that\u2019s great. They deserve it. Deep state, blah, blah, blah. I think it\u2019s similar to they pretend that Washington, DC is some kind of hellscape, as you put it, that needs to have somebody come in and just bulldoze it. Which makes the rest of the country a little bit more likely to be like, hey, whatever. I\u2019ll say, what is interesting is there hasn\u2019t been much polling, but the one poll I\u2019ve seen on this has 47 percent of Americans disapproving of this action and 34 or 35 percent saying that they\u2019re O.K with it. So I think the political aspect of this, and to go back to our conversation earlier in the summer about L.A., I think I argued, then that the public doesn\u2019t like disorder. And when the president does things like this, it creates the impression that there is disorder, that the president is responsible for it. And I think that dynamic might assert itself here as well. Yeah, David, you can also address the kind of broader view of this. But I think one of the issues that Jamelle has pointed up is that D.C. has long had a problem in terms of how it deals with crime. And when you have a couple of high profile issues that Trump can take, I think this was all provoked, because a member of the administration got his butt kicked at 3:00 a.m. by a group of people in a fairly popular area in a part of D.C. considered, safer than others, Can we say Big Balls on here? O.K I was waiting for someone to breach that wall. An administration official, a young man whose nickname is Big Balls, was jumped, and Trump completely freaked out. So now here we are with. I think the National Guard has been dispatched on the National Mall because that\u2019s where the problem is. I mean, I live in a very safe neighborhood. I keep waiting for them to come secure my street from the porch pirate who occasionally will steal my Amazon packages. But anyway, I digress here. Yeah, here\u2019s one thing one caution I would add. Yes, crime in D.C. is at a 30 year low. Violent crime in D.C. is at a 30 year low, but it\u2019s still a relative to other U.S. cities, is a pretty violent city relative to other U.S. cities. And there\u2019s also a lot of people, especially if you are not used to and have not seen the improvement in D.C., especially since the pandemic, that sometimes if you come from other cities, that what you\u2019ll see in that kind of low level disorder category in D.C. can be pretty shocking to people who are not used to it. And so I think one mistake that people can make here is to say, look, he\u2019s doing this in D.C., he\u2019s fine. D.C. is fine. I don\u2019t think you would. We should say D.C. is fine. But what we should say is D.C. is improving substantially. And this is not the way you achieve further improvements. And this is, I think, a consistent pattern in dealing with Trump. Often people will look at an institution or a place that he\u2019s attacking, and there\u2019s this instinct to rally completely to its defense. Well, sometimes these institutions do have problems. They do need reform. It\u2019s just not his reform. And what happened to what happened to our friend, Big Balls. Big Balls \u2013 Was terrible. That was terrible. That should not happen. That\u2019s awful. But then to save about that incident that is then the pretext. That\u2019s the instigating incident for bringing in the guard. What this reminds me of is that it\u2019s not so much that Trump is tough on crime. It\u2019s really that he really wants to be tough on his enemies. And that is a different thing than being tough on crime, because being tough on crime requires a lot more intelligent thought. It\u2019s a lot harder than calling in this National Guard and plopping them on the mall. Jamal, that speaks to your point about him not being able to actually govern or. right. So I have many thoughts. I think that to David\u2019s point about the real problems that D.C. has and questions of public disorder. I think part of the problem is you want ought to make a conceptual separation right between public disorder and crime. A homelessness problem isn\u2019t a crime problem. It\u2019s a housing cost problem. It\u2019s the problem is a social services problem. But it\u2019s not a crime problem. It may, in some acute circumstances produce criminal activity, but it\u2019s not primarily a crime problem. And what I push against is the conflation of all these things into crime for two reasons. One, that makes it harder to solve. Even if you were inclined to give the president the benefit of the doubt here, once you take the view that this is a question of bedlam and lawlessness, then that leans leaned toward these sorts of militaristic responses versus things that are much more tuned to the actual problems at hand. It\u2019s worth noting that D.C.\u2018s neighbor, Baltimore, they\u2019ve sliced their murder rate in half, and that was in part a product of better and smarter policing. And it was in part a product of really investing in social services and doing the kind of hard work it takes to identify the communities and the people and the communities. I mean the blocks. Like the neighborhoods and the people, the individuals who are might describe as criminogenic. More likely to spread crime and kind of addressing those people and those places in a specific and targeted way. And so I think when you conflate disorder, however you want to whatever you want to include in that and I\u2019ll say some of that, it seems like some of that people include in that just like the ambient noise of cities of just like lots of humanity together. And I think that\u2019s also why I\u2019m often kind of doesn\u2019t want to live in a real city. He wants to live in Mar a Lago, where everything is painted gold. Let\u2019s figure out what we\u2019re talking like. When you say disorder, do you mean visible homelessness. Do you mean seeing a drug needle on the street a problem, or do you mean homelessness a problem, visible homelessness as well. Or do you mean like working class Black people walking around. What do you mean here. And I think it\u2019s important to maybe to force people to specify what they mean when discussing this, but also recognizing that Congress and the administration has been quite hostile to providing D.C. with the kind of resources it needs to address these problems. So it\u2019s all theater for the sake of a president who, as David says, wants to punish his enemies, and a president who imagines himself as a strong man doing strongman things. Well, and I\u2019m glad you brought up Baltimore, because the Baltimore story is a remarkable story. And it does not involve the U.S. Army. It is a year on year crime drop. That\u2019s the stuff of dreams almost. It\u2019s really amazing. And I think you raise a very good point. There is a difference between crime and disorder. Although I think people experience disorder when people experience is often very deeply unsettling, and they often feel like that crime is about to happen when they\u2019re in the presence of disorder. And I think that\u2019s a very good point taken. But I think that it\u2019s very important to get the word out and to get the message out to American people that a blue cities are taking crime very seriously, and B, they\u2019re actually achieving results, that good things are happening in these cities, because Trump thrives off the sense that nobody is doing anything until I came aboard. So just like Jamelle has his hobby horses, one of my hobby horses is the long tail of the pandemic and how people all just thought it was going to snap me all over. So I in D.C. in particular, the pandemic was devastating for the youth population. And one of the things that Trump has complained about is the youth crime rate in the city. Well, what happened is the pandemic wound up with all these kids on the street out of school, nowhere to go. Lots of twouble to get into. And it took a while for the city to catch up and figure out what to do about that. And so you\u2019ve seen, I think the problem spiked in 2023, and we\u2019ve been watching it go back down as they try to address what is a very real, very complicated problem that people just didn\u2019t realize was going to last as long as it did post pandemic. And when Michelle did the massive, massive crime spike murder spike in particular occur in the United States during Trump\u2019s first term in 2020, when he was president. And so the murder rate absolutely spiked in Trump\u2019s last year of his presidency. And big cities and American state and local and federal governments have been struggling to get it under control since. But if you look at the arc, it\u2019s moving in very strongly positive ways. And that started during the Biden administration. He inherited an absolute crime disaster from Trump, 1.0. So the idea that Trump is the guy who can fix crime, the last American crime disaster occurred under Trump. The thing I have a sense that we want to move on. But the last thing I\u2019ll say about this, I think this is a very good point, is that in addition to militarization being not particularly helpful when it comes to dealing with problems of crime and disorder, it\u2019s also the case that Trump\u2019s entire rhetoric of cities opposing them as again, these hellscapes, these dystopian places, these inherently dangerous places, I think can contribute to attitudes among law enforcement that make dealing with crime more difficult. Like part of what you need in dealing with violent crime are relationships between the communities that are affected. And law enforcement. There has to be a degree of trust between these people. Otherwise, if there is no trust, you\u2019re not going to go to a detective and say, hey, this happened and I know it involved this person. If the President of the United States is spreading paranoia and distrust about these cities and these communities, then I think, this. I feel like I sound like a 90s style conservative here. I think that kind of rhetoric has a downstream effect on the culture of the country. And in this specific case in the culture of law enforcement, which already isn\u2019t great. Like well known fact culture of American law enforcement could be better. And this doesn\u2019t help. So we cannot say that we weren\u2019t warned that this would happen. I mean, by Trump himself, he\u2019s long been open about his desire to deploy the military against Americans. Whether to suppress protest, fight crime, whatever has annoyed him that morning. And he is raring to blur the lines between law enforcement and the military, ostensibly in the name of Public Safety and order. But looking at this, even beyond D.C., where he\u2019s trying. What are the risks of where he\u2019s going. Look, between this L.A. deployment and this Washington deployment, what he\u2019s doing is introducing to the American people really a relative, a kind of a slow rollout, although not all that slow of the idea that yeah, we could see American troops and American city streets is a thing you\u2019re going to see. This is something that is a part of the fabric of American life. This is rather than a giant invocation of the Insurrection Act and immediate descent of thousands and thousands of troops, troops into many American cities, which would trigger massive protests in response. What you\u2019re dealing with is a deployment to L.A. a small deployment to Washington, D.C., a few more to the border. You\u2019re leaking it into the American body politic in a way that from a purely kind of Machiavellian sense, is kind of shrewd. So, look, that\u2019s the most obvious. He\u2019s normalizing troop deployments. That\u2019s one thing that\u2019s happening. Number two, and this is something I think that needs to be discussed a bit more, is he\u2019s pulling the military into his partisan orbit. And by that, I don\u2019t mean that the military is right now the military itself self is being corrupted. What I\u2019m saying is that he is using his commander in chief authority to make the military an instrument of his political ambitions. And you could have the highest ethics in the military, but their compulsion and their requirement that they follow these orders so long as they\u2019re lawful, means that as a practical matter, they become his instrument. And I\u2019m going to tell you, that is terrible for the military, because they\u2019re one of the last institutions that the public has faith in. Exactly, exactly. And if a Republican president dragoons them into his political project, then the military, even if it is following lawful orders, even if unwise or the obligations, you don\u2019t follow unlawful orders, you don\u2019t get to judge their wisdom. You don\u2019t get to say, well, that\u2019s a stupid decision to take that Hill. I\u2019m not going to do that. And so that is going to pull and the perception of millions of American people will be. Here are Trump\u2019s troops. And I cannot emphasize how dangerous that is for the American military over the long term. And so there\u2019s just so many different ways. This is dangerous. This is counterproductive. This is ineffective. So, Jamelle, at what point does Trump constantly pressure testing or even circumventing the law come back and bite him? Do you think? Oh, I don\u2019t tend to be more optimistic about these things than I do. I mean, it\u2019s not so much optimistic. I just look, I start from the premise that Donald Trump is ultimately subject to some level of political gravity, and that there are things that the public does, likes and dislikes that affect that. I think in this case, to David\u2019s point about the danger this poses to the military and to civilian military relations, which people I think people who either have experienced the military, who have studied in an academic way. The American military will note that the US has a surprisingly long and pretty good history when it comes to stable and productive relationships between civilian and military leadership. This is not a country right where we have to worry about a rogue general deciding that they could do a better job leading the country than someone else. There\u2019s a bargain that\u2019s been struck between civilian and military leaders in which everyone, everyone stays in their respective lanes. And this unsettles the bargain and makes that. It makes it more likely that we see the kinds of things that we\u2019ve seen in other countries. But that\u2019s not the point I want to make. The point I make is that you are deploying American soldiers on a mission that isn\u2019t really what they\u2019re trained for whatsoever, and may in fact end up reducing morale. People don\u2019t sign up to go police. A city that they might be from, especially if we\u2019re talking National Guard. They\u2019re not signing up to police, their friends and neighbors or people who are like their friends and neighbors, not signing up to point guns at people who might have been classmates. And so that degrades, I think, morale among soldiers. And if we do face an actual emergency that requires the use of military force, we will be facing it with a military that has seen its morale and perhaps its readiness to grade it as a result of these actions. And I think this is actually a story you can tell about the entire administration across multiple areas. The White House has been on this systematic effort to dismantle the nation\u2019s readiness to deal with all manner of crises. And it\u2019s really only a stroke of a stroke of luck thus far that we haven\u2019t run into something truly catastrophic. And I\u2019ll say, even then, we\u2019ve had big natural disasters, storms, flooding that have demonstrated the importance of having a competent and professional federal bureaucracy and federal service that can respond to these things. I\u2019m reading right now the historian Andy Horowitz\u2019s book \u201cKatrina: A History, 1915 to 2015.\u201d And that book, speaks of Katrina, but of hurricanes in the 60s, hurricanes beginning of the 20th century that were arguably as destructive. If the United States faces something like that right in the next couple of years, will we be ready to respond. If there is a terrorist attack on American soil, we\u2019ll be ready to respond. And I think the danger, politics aside, the danger is that have to the country has to be governed. Like that\u2019s the thing that has to happen. Like the presidency is a real job. I know the president imagines it as basically, he gets to be America\u2019s favorite television character. But like in reality, this is a real job and these agencies are real responsibilities. He just as of our recording, he is nominating for head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Just some hack. No, I mean complete hack. Yeah, I was about to say no offense because I\u2019m trying to be polite. No no offense. Intended offense. That\u2019s fine. Like a total hack. A guy who has one. He has his PhD, one citation, who\u2019s done nothing to really Marc himself as qualified for what is a genuinely important position in government and maintaining the integrity of the American economy. It\u2019s like, Yeah, if things go perfectly well, this is still a terrible decision, but maybe you can weather it. But as soon as there\u2019s a little something that goes wrong, you\u2019ve just made you\u2019ve just made a house of cards that will collapse. And that\u2019s the danger of all of this. And there\u2019s another thing here. Look, so far as a percentage of the military, we\u2019re talking about a pretty small percentage of soldiers who are being put into this domestic law enforcement role. But I will tell you, a military is designed to confront and defeat battlefield enemies. And the more you turn a military into a domestic law enforcement agency, as many dictators do, as many authoritarians do, that doesn\u2019t tend to do very much good for the battlefield effectiveness of that military. If you care about American national security, we should be jumping up and down and saying, this is not their mission. Their mission needs to be laser focused on the possibility of conflict in Europe, the possibility of conflict in Taiwan. Korea is always volatile. That requires intense focus. We still have some anti-isis fighting to do. This requires intense focused training planning, not diversions into American streets for political theater. I mean, this is one of the things that\u2019s made this particularly dispiriting so far, is that nobody seems to even know what the goal is here. The National Guard has been dispatched, but the local authorities don\u2019t know what they\u2019re going to do. They\u2019re not going to be making arrests. They\u2019re there to protect federal assets. But how are they supposed to be working with local police. I mean, it does not give me a great sense of optimism that I should take this seriously as a legitimate effort to help the district. And I got to love the double game that people in MAGA play. Yeah Trump is deploying the troops. And then you go, this is dangerous. And they go, stop clutching your pearls. They\u2019re not going to be arresting anybody. You\u2019re like, wait, what is it. Yeah where are they on these guys. I assume they love it, right, MAGA? Oh, for sure. Yeah. Yeah. As soon as he does it they\u2019re all rallying to Trump\u2019s defense. Yeah of course of course. That\u2019s what a real man would do. It\u2019s just like a point about on this readiness question on responsibilities and such. Earlier in the year, the administration basically did layoffs at the F.B.I. And then it turned a bunch of F.B.I. agents towards immigration enforcement. And now it\u2019s turning F.B.I. agents towards domestic law enforcement. But there are still terror threats. There\u2019s still human trafficking. There Still there\u2019s still things that the F.B.I. has to attend to as a federal law enforcement agency. And so not to be like the F.B.I. so great. But like, are there threats, are there literal criminal conspiracies that are not being addressed because the F.B.I. is being told to either do the president\u2019s pursuit, being told to help arrest a bunch of abuelas or being told to of stand on street, right. Like, O.K, I would love to think that Americans are getting fed up with Trump\u2019s overreach on this, but I mean, honestly, much of the country seems to be going through some jacked up, testosterone addled. Who\u2019s your daddy phase. So they\u2019re ultimately just going to be like, whatever this it\u2019s just Trump being Trump. It\u2019s one of you tell me I\u2019m wrong. Just please tell me I\u2019m wrong on this. I think Trump has figured out something that is quite unsettling, which is that he does not think or care necessarily if what he does is popular, so long as he believes he\u2019s more popular than the Democrats. And so \u2013 Oh, dear. A lot of this polling that shows that 60 percent of Americans disapprove of this and 55 percent approve of that, disapprove of that. I can tell you in MAGA circles, they\u2019re not liking that at all. They\u2019re looking at polling that says the Republican Party is more popular than the Democratic Party. Now, I think that some of that polling is deceptive, because a lot of the disaffection against the Democrats is coming from a left that is very upset with Democrats and is never going to vote Republican. And so I think Republicans might be feeling their oats a bit too much. But this is part of the calculus. It\u2019s not hey, we need to be popular. It\u2019s just that we need to be more popular than those guys. Yeah and that. And I think that is where he\u2019s pinning his political hopes and where MAGA pins its political hopes. I tend to think that that\u2019s just not a good strategy. I mean, if you stop paying attention on election night last year, you would have gotten the impression that Donald Trump won a commanding majority of the American public. But if you just tuned in and kept following the count for another month and a half, what you would have seen is that, in fact, he got little less than half of the voting public in that election. It was almost a split decision if you want to use those terms and under those conditions, your political capital, such that it is actually pretty valuable resource. You don\u2019t actually have as much of it as you think that the election wasn\u2019t. I think MAGA seems to think of the election as an Enabling Act for Trump authoritarianism. But in point of fact, what it was is a small but critical number of Americans said, we want to go back to 2019. That\u2019s it. That was the election, right. That was the whole thing. And if I were in if I were in Trump\u2019s position, I would be very jealous of maintaining my approval to accomplish my goals, but also really to prevent the bottom from falling out. And I actually think that this is the most poorly constructed car you can imagine. And if there\u2019s any bump in the road, a literal bottom falls out. We\u2019ll start careening off of a car and the president\u2019s approval collapses. What happens when the guy who thinks imagines himself a dictator realizes no one likes him. Doesn\u2019t seem great. But I do think that there\u2019s a real risk there. Even with all this gerrymandering stuff, we\u2019re not going to talk about it, but yeah, O.K, gerrymander, whatever. Yeah don\u2019t get me started on that. If the bottom falls out in the National environment, next year is D plus 7 D plus 8, then you\u2019ve just guaranteed yourself like a catastrophic wave election against you. And you lose all those gerrymandered seats. So if we\u2019re looking at that, if we\u2019re looking at that framework, Jamelle, is there anything that you see that Democrats should be doing to increase those bumps and the car falling apart. This is last little conversation of ours of the summer. I\u2019ll just repeat something I\u2019ve been saying all summer, please. You just got to be aggressive. Capture attention. Don\u2019t be afraid of don\u2019t be afraid of creating waves. Even if there\u2019s some backlash to you. I think the one thing Trump understands correctly is that it\u2019s more important to get your message out than to deal with the backlash, the immediate backlash to you. So just like, just like just got to be ready to get into the fight to tussle, take some conscious, take some get throw some punches, be willing to take punches. And if you get a cut lip or a black eye, but you\u2019ve given the other guy a Black guy, you\u2019re in good shape. All right. We\u2019re going to give you the last word on that. Guys, it\u2019s goodbye for now. See crazies going to be here when we get back. We got a gubernatorial election in Virginia. Excited to talk about that. Oh yeah. Yeah Yeah. And don\u2019t forget New Jersey. We got New Jersey, too. Yeah, we got an election in Virginia. All right, all right. Point taken.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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