{"id":6437,"date":"2025-10-23T09:56:25","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T09:56:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=6437"},"modified":"2025-10-23T13:14:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T13:14:08","slug":"recession-will-test-whether-ai-is-fueling-an-economy-with-jobless-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=6437","title":{"rendered":"Recession will test whether AI is fueling an economy with ‘jobless growth’"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Good morning.<\/strong> Geoff Colvin in for Diane today. Is AI enabling the economy to grow without any need for new jobs? If that happens, what kind of world will we face? It\u2019s a question that\u2019s top of mind for leaders given recent events.<\/p>\n

\n

Recently, Goldman Sachs published an analysis titled \u201cJobless Growth,\u201d noting the current odd pattern of the U.S. economy growing strongly while jobs increase only slowly. The Goldman analysts aren\u2019t extremists like, say, legendary venture capitalist Vinod Khosla, who says AI will automate 80% of all jobs by 2030. Still, they see \u201cconcerning signs\u201d in companies increasingly using AI.<\/p>\n

A recession could clarify the big picture considerably, they say. That\u2019s when workers in routine jobs tend to get laid off and not brought back when the recession ends. Consider for example the 2001 recession following the internet bust. CEOs had been working hard to use the internet in their businesses, reducing headcount in the process, but firing lots of employees is unpleasant, and bosses often put it off. The recession forced them to see how many employees they didn\u2019t need anymore, and it was a lot. Economists call the aftermath \u201cthe jobless recovery.\u201d<\/p>\n

The day after the Goldman analysis appeared, Goldman itself sent a memo warning employees of potential job cuts and slower hiring through the rest of the year, noting that \u201cthe rapidly accelerating advancements in AI can unlock significant productivity gains for us.\u201d A spokesman told Reuters the company still expects total headcount to have risen by year end. That same day, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser told Wall Street analysts about the many ways in which the company is finding abundant efficiencies with AI. Just one use, involving software production, \u201csaves considerable time and creates around 100,000 hours of weekly capacity,\u201d she said. \u201cThat\u2019s a very meaningful productivity uplift.\u201d<\/p>\n

Next day: An analyst asked Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan about AI as an efficiency driver for the company. Moynihan said the company was using it in just that way. \u201cIf we had 285,000 people 15 years ago,\u201d he said, \u201cwe have 213,000 people 1761225245.\u201d Those far fewer employees today are producing much, much better performance: The bank\u2019s net income 15 years ago was a loss of $2 billion; last year, with 25% fewer workers, it was a profit of $27 billion.<\/p>\n

History tells us not to worry. General purpose technologies such as AI don\u2019t come around very often, but when they do, they always eliminate vast swaths of jobs. Panic ensues. Then unlimited human creativity invents new jobs that deliver more value overall, and living standards rise. The process may take many years, but it has never failed us. Now AI, with its promise of developing intelligence greater than our own, forces us to confront a momentous question: Is this time different? <\/p>\n

If you\u2019re inclined to dig into those questions, consider joining us for an upcoming Fortune<\/em> digital event in partnership with Workday where we\u2019ll be exploring how leading CFOs are approaching the age of AI. It will take place Thursday, Nov. 13, and you can register here.<\/p>\n

More news below.<\/p>\n

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com<\/em><\/p>\n

Top news<\/h3>\n

Tesla\u2019s revenue soars, profits drop<\/b><\/p>\n

Elon Musk\u2019s carmaker <\/span>reported record vehicle sales in the third quarter<\/span><\/a>, which drove revenue to a new high of $28 billion, but profits cratered due in part to more spending on AI R&D. Musk used the earnings call to advocate for his <\/span>proposed pay package<\/span> that could be worth up to $1 trillion and grant him significant control of the company, arguing that if he builds Tesla\u2019s robot army, as he\u2019s pledged to do, he should be able to influence it.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

New Russia sanctions<\/b><\/p>\n

The U.S. <\/span>imposed new sanctions on Russia\u2019s two biggest oil companies<\/span><\/a>\u2014the second Trump administration\u2019s first direct action against Moscow\u2014in an effort to pressure the Kremlin over the Ukraine war.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meta lays off 600<\/b><\/p>\n

Meta confirmed Wednesday that it\u2019s planning <\/span>to lay off 600 employees<\/span><\/a> to reduce layers in its AI division. The cuts are not expected to touch Meta\u2019s top-tier AI hires who are overseen by <\/span>chief AI officer Alexandr Wang<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

JPMorgan\u2019s new headquarters<\/b><\/p>\n

JPMorgan Chase\u2019s new <\/span>$3 billion, 60-story headquarters in Manhattan<\/span> opens this week, and CEO Jamie Dimon has pulled out all the stops to lure workers back to the office. The Park Avenue skyscraper features 19 restaurants, an assortment of coffee shops, and at full capacity can seat 10,000 employees.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Citi CEO becomes chair<\/b><\/p>\n

Citibank is joining other Wall Street banks in combining the role of CEO and board chair<\/a>. It\u2019s named CEO Jane Fraser as chair and awarded her a one-time bonus of $25 million as she steers its ongoing turnaround. Shares have climbed 50% in the past year. Citi separated the CEO and chair roles about 15 years ago.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Senate Dems probe Witkoff\u2019s crypto holdings<\/b><\/p>\n

Eight Senate Democrats led by Sen. Adam Schiff (D\u2013Calif.) sent a letter to Trump advisor Steve Witkoff <\/span>demanding<\/span> that he explain why his latest ethics filing shows he still holds stakes in crypto ventures including World Liberty Financial, a Trump-linked cryptocurrency company. In May, the company stated that Witkoff was \u201cin the process of fully divesting\u201d his stake. Spokespeople for the White House and World Liberty Financial did not immediately respond to questions for comment.<\/span><\/p>\n

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella pay package soars<\/b><\/p>\n

A new proxy filing reveals that Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella\u2019s total compensation <\/span>jumped<\/span> to $96.5 million for fiscal 2025. The company\u2019s board noted that the pay bump is connected to Nadella\u2019s work establishing \u201cMicrosoft as a clear artificial intelligence leader for this generational technology shift.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The markets<\/h3>\n

S&P 500<\/b> futures up 0.04% this morning. The last session closed down 0.53%. <\/span>STOXX Europe 600<\/b> was up 0.18% in early trading. <\/span>The U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100<\/b> was up 0.52%\u00a0 in early trading. <\/span>Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225<\/b> was down 1.35%. <\/span>China\u2019s CSI 300<\/b> was up 0.3%. <\/span>The South Korea KOSPI<\/b> was down 0.98%. <\/span>India\u2019s NIFTY 50 <\/b>was up 0.08%. Bitcoin is up at $109K.<\/span><\/p>\n

Around the watercooler<\/h3>\n

From trading floors to streaming wars: Grindr\u2019s ex-CFO on taking career risks at the right time<\/span> by Ruth Umoh<\/span><\/p>\n

Corning CEO says Steve Jobs pressured him into making all the screens for the first iPhone<\/span> by Dave Smith<\/span><\/p>\n

Apple is \u2018drastically\u2019 cutting iPhone Air production, report says, after new survey reveals \u2018virtually no demand\u2019<\/span> by Dave Smith<\/span><\/p>\n

As government shutdown persists, ICE agents are among the still-paid employees receiving \u2018super checks\u2019 including lost pay and overtime<\/span> by Sasha Rogelberg<\/span><\/p>\n

CEO Daily is compiled and edited by Joey Abrams and Claire Zillman.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

This is the web version of CEO Daily, a newsletter of must-read global insights from CEOs and industry leaders. Sign up to get it delivered free to your inbox.<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Good morning. Geoff Colvin in for Diane today. Is AI enabling the economy to grow without any need for new jobs? 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