{"id":6608,"date":"2025-11-06T12:22:15","date_gmt":"2025-11-06T12:22:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=6608"},"modified":"2025-11-06T20:14:09","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T20:14:09","slug":"wall-street-cant-decide-whether-the-job-market-is-showing-a-rebound-or-declining-to-stall-speed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=6608","title":{"rendered":"Wall Street can\u2019t decide whether the job market is showing a \u2018rebound\u2019 or declining to \u2018stall speed\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n

S&P 500 futures were flat this morning after the index closed up 0.37% yesterday. The Asian markets were up across the board today, but Europe\u2019s STOXX 600 marginally declined in early trading. The mixed picture mirrors an argument on Wall Street about whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December\u2014delivering a new round of cheaper money that will likely be good for stocks\u2014or keep rates on hold as it battles inflation.<\/p>\n

\n

ADP\u2019s private payrolls data came in yesterday with more job gains than expected, leading some to think that the job market remains relatively strong. That would reduce the likelihood that the Fed will cut. But others noted that the job growth was still slowing toward \u201cstall speed,\u201d the rate below which the economy creates fewer jobs than it loses.<\/p>\n

The CME FedWatch index of bets on future interest rate levels showed 67.3% of speculators betting this morning that the Fed will take another 0.25% off the base rate, with the remainder betting the Fed will keep the rate on hold.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Deutsche Bank argued that a December cut was now less likely. \u201cPrivate payrolls were up by +42k in October (vs. +30k expected), which was a clear rebound from the -29k contraction in September. That\u2019s a release that\u2019s taken on more significance than usual, given we\u2019re missing the usual jobs report because of the shutdown,\u201d Jim Reid and his team at Deutsche Bank told clients this morning. \u201cThe U.S. outlook was more resilient than feared.<\/p>\n

\u201cThose [numbers] meant investors dialed back their expectations for Fed rate cuts in the months ahead,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n

However, Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics argued via a chart that while the ADP private payroll number is growing, its growth rate is decreasing over time:<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s well below the break-even pace of payrolls \u2026 Labor market slack, therefore, likely continued to accumulate in October, suggesting the official data will make a strong case for the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] to ease again in December,\u201d he said in a research note.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He was joined by Jamie Cox, a managing partner at Harris Financial Group in Richmond, Va. \u201cFor Fed watchers, this ADP report should make it clear that a December rate cut is now in play. We are nearing stall speed in the labor market, and that will get the Fed\u2019s attention,\u201d he said in a note sent to Fortune.<\/em><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  • S&P 500<\/strong> futures are flat this morning. The last session closed up 0.37%.\u00a0<\/li>\n
  • The STOXX Europe 600 <\/strong>was down 0.08% in early trading.\u00a0<\/li>\n
  • The U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100 <\/strong>was down 0.3% in early trading.\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n
  • Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 <\/strong>was up 1.34%.\u00a0<\/li>\n
  • China\u2019s CSI 300 <\/strong>was up 1.43%.\u00a0<\/li>\n
  • The South Korea KOSPI <\/strong>was up 0.55%.\u00a0<\/li>\n
  • India\u2019s NIFTY 50<\/strong> is down 0.34%.\u00a0<\/li>\n
  • Bitcoin<\/strong> was up at $103K.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    S&P 500 futures were flat this morning after the index closed up 0.37% yesterday. The Asian markets were up across the board today, but Europe\u2019s STOXX 600 marginally declined in…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":619,"featured_media":6609,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[6],"tags":[2851,7732,2501,337,1868,3411,4919,7733,1249,1248],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nWall Street can\u2019t decide whether the job market is showing a \u2018rebound\u2019 or declining to \u2018stall speed\u2019 - Frisco Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"U.S. futures are flat this morning as traders try to figure out whether new jobs data makes a Fed rate cut in December more or less likely.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=6608\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Wall Street can\u2019t decide whether the job market is showing a \u2018rebound\u2019 or declining to \u2018stall speed\u2019 - 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