{"id":6951,"date":"2025-12-03T12:18:03","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T12:18:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=6951"},"modified":"2025-12-04T09:44:04","modified_gmt":"2025-12-04T09:44:04","slug":"anthropic-considers-ipo-despite-warnings-that-excess-liquidity-is-blowing-a-bubble-in-the-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=6951","title":{"rendered":"Anthropic considers IPO despite warnings that excess liquidity is blowing a bubble in the markets"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Anthropic is considering an IPO, according to the <\/a>Financial Times<\/a>,<\/em> right after a series of warnings from senior central bank chiefs and others of a bubble in AI and excess liquidity in a range of asset markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n

At the same time, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett has emerged as President Donald Trump\u2019s favorite candidate to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell next year\u2014signaling further interest rate cuts in 2026 and thus new rounds of cheaper money coming into the market.<\/p>\n

And Big Short<\/em> investor Michael Burry repeated his warning that stocks were in a bubble on a podcast with author Michael Lewis.<\/p>\n

Anthropic, which is in talks for a new round of VC funding that would value the AI company at $300 billion, has retained the California law firm Wilson Sonsini to advise it on IPO issues, the FT<\/em> said, with an eye on going public in 2026. The company denied it has made any such plans.<\/p>\n

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Going public would give the company a\u00a0vast new war chest of cash with which to compete against Sam Altman\u2019s OpenAI. There is some weakness in OpenAI\u2019s business, according to research made public from Deutsche Bank analysts Adrian Cox and Stefan Abrudan. Growth in consumer subscriptions for OpenAI\u2019s ChatGPT is slowing down, according to transaction data from dbDataInsights.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThe value of OpenAI subscriptions in the major European markets declined slightly in June and has been little changed since then \u2026 Unlike in the past two years, the pace of growth has not increased long after the annual summer slowdown, suggesting that the subscription model may be saturating,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n

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At the same time, growth in subscription value has rocketed at Anthropic and Perplexity\u2014although both of their large-language models have a smaller number of customers, Deutsche Bank\u2019s data shows.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe new data also show that the value of OpenAI subscriptions has increased 18% this year, compared with a near sevenfold increase in Anthropic\u2019s Claude and 46% gain in Perplexity from much smaller bases,\u201d the pair wrote.<\/p>\n

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And Anthropic has an easier pathway to profitability than OpenAI, Deutsche Bank said:<\/p>\n

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OpenAI and Anthropic both declined to comment when reached. OpenAI has a robust defense of its business. In a recent blog post<\/a> it touted that \u201cmore than 1 million business customers around the world are directly using OpenAI\u2014the fastest-growing business platform in history.\u201d VP and head of ChatGPT Nick Turley recently posted on X<\/a>, \u201cToday, ChatGPT is the #1 AI assistant worldwide, with around 70% of assistant usage. New products are launching every week, which is great \u2014 it pushes us to move faster and keep raising the bar for what an AI assistant can do.\u201d<\/p>\n

It is routine for companies of Anthropic\u2019s size to consider an IPO; it is difficult for them to repeatedly go back to private venture capital sources, asking for billions more with no \u201cexit\u201d in sight\u2014but the company has not made a definitive decision, a source familiar with Anthropic told Fortune<\/em>.<\/p>\n

If Anthropic were to go public, it would be in an environment filled with worries about bubble-like activity. The Bank of England warned on Tuesday<\/a> that \u201cmany risky asset valuations remain materially stretched, particularly for technology companies focused on artificial intelligence. Equity valuations in the U.S. are close to the most stretched they have been since the dotcom bubble, and in the U.K. since the global financial crisis. This heightens the risk of a sharp correction.\u201d<\/p>\n

U.K. pension funds have been quietly reallocating their investments away from U.S. tech equities for this reason, the FT<\/em> reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That followed remarks by former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan, who spoke at a Clifford Capital Investor Day in Singapore. \u201cWe are in a period where there\u2019s ample credit, and the Fed is cutting,\u201d Bloomberg quoted him as saying<\/a>. \u201cThat is the time when the risks build up more. So this is a time to be really more careful.\u201d Rajan is now a finance professor at the University of Chicago.<\/p>\n

And Bank for International Settlements General Manager Pablo Hern\u00e1ndez de Cos warned in a speech<\/a> that there was too much liquidity being offered to nonbank financial institutions to do leveraged trades on government debt. Although he did not link that to the stock markets, it dovetailed with the theme that asset markets are awash with too much cheap cash.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIn recent years, hedge funds have been able to borrow amounts equal to or higher than the market value of the collateral provided\u2014that is, without any discount, or haircut, protecting the cash lender from market risk,\u201d he said. \u201cAround 70% of bilateral repos [a short-term borrowing tool based on a repurchase agreement] taken out by hedge funds in U.S. dollars and 50% in bilateral repos in euros are offered at zero haircut, meaning that creditors are not imposing any constraint on leverage using government bonds.\u201d<\/p>\n

Burry, the investor who correctly called the 2008 financial crisis, appeared on a podcast with Michael Lewis<\/a>, author of The Big Short,<\/em> to explain why he closed his investment fund. He thinks there is a bubble in tech stocks and wants to short the market, but he has clients who want to be long on stocks. \u201cI think that we\u2019re in a bad situation in the stock market. I think the stock market could be in for a number of bad years. And I think it could be a longer bear market more akin to 2000,\u201d Burry said. \u201cThis bubble looks an awful lot like the dotcom bubble.\u201d<\/p>\n

In Washington, D.C., Trump said he had settled on a replacement for the Fed\u2019s Powell. The markets interpreted that as meaning the Fed would be likely to continue cutting rates, thus adding more liquidity to markets that are already near their record highs. The CME FedWatch tool\u2014which shows bets on Fed fund futures\u2014gave a 90% chance of a 0.25% cut coming in December and a 40% chance of another one being delivered in March 2026.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:<\/strong><\/p>\n