{"id":7474,"date":"2026-01-18T15:06:56","date_gmt":"2026-01-18T15:06:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=7474"},"modified":"2026-01-18T15:06:56","modified_gmt":"2026-01-18T15:06:56","slug":"venezuela-governing-challenges-html","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=7474","title":{"rendered":"Why It\u2019s Hard to Run Venezuela"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Under Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, a status quo prevailed among Venezuela\u2019s powerful armed factions: Paramilitary cells enforced the government\u2019s priorities. Ever-expanding crime syndicates, deep-pocketed prison gangs and combat-tested Colombian rebels often colluded with local officials or the federal government.<\/p>\n

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But with Mr. Maduro gone, and allies and opponents competing to fill the power vacuum at Venezuela\u2019s center, there are many forces \u2014\u00a0or breakaway groups within them \u2014 that could frustrate the ambitions of whoever governs the country.<\/p>\n

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Photos by Juan Barreto\/Agence France-Presse and Adriana Loureiro Fernandez\/The New York Times<\/span><\/p>\n

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For now, Delcy Rodr\u00edguez, a Maduro ally who led the stabilization of Venezuela\u2019s economy after a harrowing crash, has emerged as the Trump administration\u2019s choice to lead the country. Ms. Rodr\u00edguez, the administration determined, has a firmer grip than the political opposition on Venezuela\u2019s many security forces and intelligence agencies, and their paramilitary offshoots.<\/p>\n

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But the transition from Mr. Maduro\u2019s authoritarian rule is just starting. The huge investments Venezuela will need to revive its vital oil industry, and the broader economy, require at least a semblance of stability.<\/p>\n

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That means the central government has to assert authority over areas of the country where well-armed crime syndicates or paramilitary agents hold sway, choking off their revenue streams from illegal activities, including extortion, drug smuggling and kidnapping. But that could upset the power dynamics Mr. Maduro used to cement control.<\/p>\n

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Rebecca Hanson, a sociologist at the University of Florida and an expert on Venezuela\u2019s security landscape, said that suddenly reducing the access to illicit markets and extortion rackets that criminal groups now enjoy is a recipe for turmoil.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThat invariably results in the perfect cocktail of increased conflict, both between criminal armed groups, and between criminal groups and the state,\u201d Ms. Hanson said.<\/p>\n

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The new dynamic does not mean a full-blown civil war is on the horizon, security experts said. But pockets of civil strife could materialize under different circumstances. These include pushback from factions in the armed forces against Venezuela\u2019s submission to the Trump administration, or a purge of security forces and intelligence agencies by an opposition-led government, potentially flooding the country with thousands of armed individuals with an ax to grind.<\/p>\n

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But there are more immediate security challenges. One involves the colectivos, the armed civilian cells that function as paramilitary enforcers for the government.<\/p>\n

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These groups generally operate in cities where they control small but strategically important swaths of territory. In Caracas, they are based in strongholds like 23 de Enero, an area of decaying modernist apartment blocks under a mile from the Miraflores presidential palace.<\/p>\n

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What colectivos look like in the streets of Caracas<\/h3>\n

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Armed members of a colectivo inspect the trunk of a car on Jan. 3, 2026. Photo by Jes\u00fas Vargas\/Getty Images<\/span><\/p>\n

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Some colectivos there are more ideologically aligned with Chavismo, the socialist-inspired movement forged by Hugo Ch\u00e1vez. Others hew to their own mercenary ideals, relying on government payouts and small-scale criminal activities to stay afloat.<\/p>\n

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Some colectivos have been seen on the streets of Caracas since Mr. Maduro\u2019s capture. Valent\u00edn Santana, the leader of one of the oldest colectivos, La Piedrita, suggested that unnamed elements within the government had been colluding with the United States prior to Mr. Maduro\u2019s capture, revealing fissures within Venezuela\u2019s power structures.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThey betrayed our president, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, but history will make them pay,\u201d Mr. Santana said in a video made after Mr. Maduro\u2019s capture.<\/p>\n

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Should even a small number of individuals from such groups mount armed challenges to the established order, Caracas offers multiple options for refuge with its labyrinthine squatter settlements, sprawling apartment blocks, abandoned high-rises and hilly topography.<\/p>\n

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The Coche neighborhood in El Valle in Caracas.<\/span> Leonardo Fern\u00e1ndez Viloria\/Reuters<\/span><\/p>\n

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Outside Caracas, security challenges also abound. Unlike the colectivos, some armed groups in rural areas are already battle-tested against well-trained adversaries. These include Colombian guerrillas with thousands in their ranks, often operating from Venezuelan territory.<\/p>\n

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These rebel groups, the National Liberation Army, or E.L.N., and splinter cells from the demobilized Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, no longer have realistic chances of seizing control of a central government.<\/p>\n

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But their numbers are resurging as they vie for control over drug smuggling routes and extortion rackets, while still relying on other illicit revenue streams like abducting oil workers.<\/p>\n

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Venezuela\u2019s mineral deposits are another potential source of instability, notably in the gold-rich state of Bol\u00edvar. Las Claritas Sindicato, one of the most powerful criminal groups engaged in illegal mining, is deeply rooted there.<\/p>\n

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Las Claritas, like similar groups, applies taxes on miners and traders, and exerts strict control over outposts where it imposes its own laws and punishments for scofflaws, according to InSight Crime, a research group focused on organized crime.<\/p>\n

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Venezuela\u2019s leadership faces not only challenges from illegal armed groups, but also potential defiance from within governing circles.<\/p>\n

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At the moment, there is a fragile alliance between civilian factions, led by Ms. Rodr\u00edguez and her brother, Jorge Rodr\u00edguez, the head of the National Assembly; and military factions led by Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino L\u00f3pez.<\/p>\n

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In a photo provided by the Venezuelan government, Venezuelan leaders walk together at the National Assembly, in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. Marcelo Garcia\/Miraflores Palace\/Handout via Reuters<\/span><\/p>\n

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But an open rupture between these camps over a contentious issue like U.S. meddling in Venezuela could open up other chances for conflict, warned Ms. Hanson, the sociologist.<\/p>\n

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Security forces and intelligence agencies are more closely aligned with the military faction, potentially threatening the stability of a civilian government whether it is led by a Chavista, like Ms. Rodr\u00edguez, or an opposition leader, like Maria Corina Machado, the recipient of last year\u2019s Nobel Peace Prize.<\/p>\n

<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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