{"id":8416,"date":"2026-03-20T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=8416"},"modified":"2026-04-07T22:44:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T22:44:08","slug":"for-ceos-its-time-for-a-wartime-mindset","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/friscotimes.org\/?p=8416","title":{"rendered":"For CEOs, it\u2019s time for a wartime mindset"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\u201cScenario planning\u201d has become boardroom shorthand for preparation to deal with the unknowable. It\u2019s a practice that is never more vital than in wartime, when a sea mine, cyberattack, or sanction can reroute supply chains overnight and send energy prices soaring.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

Instead of betting on one forecast about how events will unfold, the most resilient CEOs are now rehearsing several plausible futures at once and deciding\u2014before the missiles start dropping, the virus becomes a pandemic, or the markets seize up\u2014what they will do in each.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019s an approach that was pioneered by Shell precursor Royal Dutch Shell. In the 1970s the energy company began developing a set of vivid alternative futures involving potential oil-supply disruptions. Shell did not invent the idea of developing such scenarios, which had earlier roots in military and Cold War strategy, but it was the first major company to embed systematic scenario planning at the center of corporate decision-making, largely through the work of economist and planner Pierre Wack. His London-based scenarios team had Shell\u2019s top managers rehearse what they would do if various crises arose.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The doomsday prep paid off. In the early 1970s, Shell\u2019s leaders wondered what would happen if events in Saudi Arabia raised the price of oil. By the time the Arab oil embargo shook the world soon thereafter, sending prices rocketing, Shell knew what to do. It had already slowed refinery expansion and adapted its refineries to handle many types of crude\u2014while competitors vacillated. The common view in the industry is that Shell came through the oil shock far better than any other major producer. The success of those exercises turned Shell into a case study for scenario planning, and the company still regularly publishes its \u201cShell Scenarios.\u201d<\/p>\n

With a war underway, corporate planning is clearly not the only urgent matter. Since the U.S. and Israeli bombardment of Iran beginning in February, thousands have been killed and millions displaced across the region. Vital shipments have been disrupted, and prices have risen worldwide. But along with the human tragedy, the war\u2014and particularly its effect on oil supply and prices\u2014has affected nearly every business around the world.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThis isn\u2019t a world war explicitly,\u201d says Rebecca Patterson, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, \u201cbut it is a war that is affecting the globe.\u201d<\/p>\n

That war was still raging when this article went to press\u2014and the conflict has underscored the importance of insights that will help guide CEOs long after the war is over.<\/p>\n

The company war room has become a permanent fixture<\/h2>\n

\u201cAlmost every client I talk to has a war room,\u201d \u00adKPMG\u2019s Mary Rollman told Fortune<\/em> in April 2025, just days after President Trump announced his list of \u201creciprocal\u201d tariffs on some 180 countries. Back then the war room was a new unit in most companies. \u201cThey get a team spun up, and the members have com\u00adpletely dropped their day job,\u201d Rollman reported.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Those war rooms have found no reason to disband. The tariff situation is still \u201cchanging almost on a weekly if not daily basis,\u201d says Abe Eshkenazi, CEO of the Association for Supply Chain Management, and the Iran war \u201cis a continuation of the uncertainty.\u201d The only difference is that the term \u201cwar room\u201d is no longer a metaphor.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Perhaps every generation thinks its own era is the most perplexing and unpredictable of all time. But evidence shows that what businesspeople have had to deal with in recent times is truly off the charts. Uncertainty indexes going back monthly to 1985, compiled by researchers at Stanford University and the University of Wisconsin, show that instability and jitters about U.S. economic policy rose to record levels starting in 2018\u2014and have never dialed down. (To create the indexes, the researchers measure disagreement among economic forecasters; federal tax code provisions set to expire; and articles on policy in major newspapers.) The indexes hit a new high after Trump revealed his 2025 tariffs. (The index covering the time of the Iran war hadn\u2019t been published when we went to press.)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t expect uncertainty to decline significantly anytime soon, says Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group. International institutions\u2014the United Nations Security Council, the World Trade Organization, the Group of Seven (G7)\u2014clearly aren\u2019t as effective as they once were at maintaining international order, he explains: \u201cWe are now living in a G-Zero world, one in which no single country or bloc of countries has the political and economic leverage\u2014or the will\u2014to drive a truly international agenda.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

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<\/div>
High gas prices are just one of the risks to prep for. <\/figcaption>

David Paul Morris\u2014Bloomberg\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n

Companies caught in the commercial chaos must now fend for themselves. In a tumultuous global order, \u201csupply-chain officers are looking for inventory buffers, alternative vendors, redundancy in their supply chains,\u201d says Eshkenazi. \u201cThat\u2019s not compatible with long-term \u00adstrategies.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

In other words: Companies\u2019 war rooms won\u2019t be closing up shop anytime soon.<\/p>\n

Playing out a range of scenarios is more essential\u2014and more difficult\u2014than ever<\/h2>\n

\u201cScenario testing or stress testing: If you\u2019re not already doing it, you need to start yesterday,\u201d says Patterson of the Council on Foreign Relations. In addition to companies stress testing their costs and supply chains, she recommends they also test their resistance to cyberattacks. \u201cIran is a strong actor in the cyber world,\u201d she says. Its successful March attack on the Stryker medical-device maker, in which its goal was apparently not to receive ransom but to destroy data, was only a recent example. Many of Iran\u2019s previous cyber\u00adattacks have targeted crucial economic infrastructure, including hospitals, ports, power plants, and railroads.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Some of the most useful scenarios are based on second- or third-order effects of an event. With the Iran war, Patterson says, \u201cthe big one is stagflationary risk,\u201d a second-order effect that creates slow economic growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. With gasoline prices and shipping costs already rising, \u201cexpect to see this feed into inflation expectations and possibly actual inflation,\u201d she says. Third-order effects might include rising interest rates and borrowing costs, and a strengthening of the dollar, making it easier to buy imports and harder to sell exports.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Iran war will likely continue to have effects long after it ends. Patterson cites an old line about gasoline prices: \u201cThey go up like a rocket and come down like a feather.\u201d<\/p>\n

Leaders should remember the pandemic<\/h2>\n

That\u2019s not to say that the Iran war will be a disaster on COVID\u2019s scale. But no one knows how it will turn out, just as no one in the pandemic\u2019s early days knew what would happen next.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Employees, share\u00adholders, customers, suppliers\u2014all were frightened and looking for answers that not even CEOs had. The pandemic changed leadership in ways that still linger, and today\u2019s executives and managers would do well to remember that transformation.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n
\n

\u201cScenario testing or stress testing: If you\u2019re not already doing it, you need to start yesterday.\u201d <\/p>\n


Rebecca Patterson, Council on Foreign Relations<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/figure>\n

The overarching theme from those days was the end of the classic CEO persona\u2014informed, prepared, firmly in charge, and invulnerable. That changed quickly. \u201cCEOs went from being godlike to being more human,\u201d said Jim Citrin of the Spencer Stuart executive search firm. A CEO told Fortune<\/em> at the time, \u201cI found the magic in an organization is about being super down-to-earth, letting people see you for who you are, with all the vulnerabilities that you face.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Now, as the fog of war drifts even into corner offices, CEOs again face questions they can\u2019t answer: How long will the war last? Will it escalate? How high will oil prices go?\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a good time to remember a lesson from the pandemic: Executives who confess they\u2019re mere mortals and don\u2019t pretend to know everything can actually become more trustworthy and more \u00adeffective as leaders.\u2002<\/p>\n

This article appears in the April\/May 2026 issue of<\/em> Fortune with the headline \u201cFor CEOs, it\u2019s time for a wartime mindset.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cScenario planning\u201d has become boardroom shorthand for preparation to deal with the unknowable. 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